Livre sur l’art de Prendre une décision
Highlights
page_xviii
I read Dreyfus’s book What Computers Can’t Do and realized that his critique of the Artificial Intelligence position was also a critique of the information-processing account of cognition and expertise
page_3
We have found that people draw on a large set of abilities that are sources of power. 2 The conventional sources of power include deductive logical thinking, analysis of probabilities, and statistical methods.3 Yet the sources of power that are needed in natural settings are usually not analytical at all. the power of intuition, mental simulation, metaphor, and storytelling. The power of intuition enables us to size up a situation quickly. The power of mental simulation lets us imagine how a course of action might be carried out. The power of metaphor lets us draw on our experience by suggesting parallels between the current situation and something else we have come across. The power of Storytelling helps us consolidate our experiences to make them available in the future, either to ourselves or to others. These areas have not been well studied by decision researchers.
page_4
research can be done outside the laboratory setting by studying realistic tasks and experienced people working under typical conditions. Features that help define a naturalistic decision-making setting are time pressure, high stakes, experienced decision makers, inadequate information (information that is missing, ambiguous, or erroneous), ill-defined goals, poorly defined procedures, cue learning, context (e.g., higher-level goals, stress), dynamic conditions, and team coordination (Orasanu and Connolly 1993).
page_4
we see experience as a basis for the sources of power we want to understand.
page_5
We are interested in tasks where the goals are unclear. Most of the time when we have to make difficult choices, we do not fully understand what we want to accomplish. For instance, when fireground commanders are called out to a blaze, they do not know what type of outcome they will be trying to reach: a fire needs to be extinguished, or the fire is so big that the best thing to do is to prevent it from spreading further, or they need to begin with search and rescue rather than fighting the fire, or they may have to call in a second or third alarm to get more resources, or the situation does not warrant extra resources and they can let the fire burn itself out. In contrast, laboratory studies concentrate on tasks with well-defined goals, since the achievement of a well-defined goal is easy to measure. With an ill-defined goal, you are never sure if the decision was right.